This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State 17th August

Lot’s of property news and data over the last week.

The biggest stories concerned the Stage 4 Lockdown in Melbourne and how this would affect our property markets and the economy.

The underlying trend in prices have continued to soften in the wake of the pandemic, across the major capital cities barring Adelaide where prices have been more resilient.

Since Australia’s international borders were closed on 22 March;

• Sydney prices have eased 1.9%,
• Melbourne have softened by 4.2%,
• Perth property values eased by 2.0%,
• Brisbane home values are broadly steady (-0.3%),
• Adelaide prices have risen 0.7%.

However, as you can see from the chart below, median property values are higher than they were 12 months ago in all our capital cities other than Perth, with Sydney +12% and Melbourne +7.4% over the last year.

The Melbourne property market will now go into hibernation as Victorian Premier Andrews announced a State of Disaster for Victoria to be in force for six weeks through September 13.

To help keep you up-to-date with all that’s happening in property, here is my updated weekly analysis of data and charts as at August 17th and provided by Corelogic and realestate.com.au.

Then further down in this long article you’ll find a more detailed State by State update using Corelogic’s monthly  charts.

Early Market Indicators

Let’s start with the number of indicators that could give us a clue to what’s ahead.

1. Buyer activity edged higher last week as shown by realestate.com.au’s Weekly Demand Report

Nationally buyer search activity realestate.com.au fell by -3.4 per cent, which was the largest weekly decline in 19 weeks.

However, a closer look at the data shows the national figure has been significantly pulled down by a large fall in Victoria (-13.3%).

Most other states recorded more modest falls; New South Wales (-1.5%), South Australia (-1.3%), Western Australia (-0.1%) and Tasmania (-1.7%).

Nationally, buyer search volumes have now declined by -4.9 per cent from their peak.

In Victoria search volumes are -18.6 per cent below their peak.

Despite the recent decline in search volumes nationally, it’s important to note volumes are still 28.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago.

Even in Victoria, search volumes remain 9.4 per cent higher than last year.

And while lockdowns are likely to impact on search behaviour for a few weeks (based on the data from the first lockdown period) REA expect that search behaviour will start to rebound as cases come under control and individuals start to see an end to the lockdown period.

The largest year-on-year increases in for sale search volumes have been recorded in Australian Capital Territory (98.5%) and Northern Territory (40.6%).

Melbourne’s second round of COVID-19 restrictions are having more of an impact on the property market than the first, with search activity dropping significantly in Victoria last week.

The -13.3 per cent fall in for sale search volumes in Victoria as the state went back into lockdown marked the largest weekly decline this year.

This highlights that, at least initially, the re-implementation of lockdowns in Victoria is having a bigger impact on search behaviour than the first round did.

2. Newly advertised properties for sale and rent

The following chart from Corelogic shows the change in the number of new residential listings being advertised for sale or rent in the past 7 days.

Over the last week the number of new properties coming on the market for sale dropped by over 10% – not surprising considering very few properties came on the market for sale in Melbourne.

At the same time there have been 8% fewer new properties advertised for lease, reversing the prevailing trend over the last few months.

3. Rental markets.

Realestate.com.au tracks the number of rental searches on its portal and reports that rental demand fell in Victoria last week on the back of stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne, but rose in all other states.

The REA Insights Rental Demand Index, which measures high-intent rental activity on realestate.com.au, declined by -3.7 per cent last week, which was the largest decline in nine weeks.

Rental demand has been trending lower and is now -17.0 per cent lower than its peak.

REA reports that although rental demand fell nationally last week, Victoria was the only state to actually record a decline (-16.3%).

The largest jumps in rental demand last week were recorded in Western Australia (2.6%) and the Northern Territory (4.1%).

The extreme weakening of rental demand in Victoria is of little surprise given the tighter lockdowns implemented last week.

However, it also highlights that Victoria accounts for a large share of national rental demand.

Interestingly, during the first week of the national lockdown in March rental demand in Victoria also fell by exactly -16.3 per cent.

All states have recorded a decline in rental demand from the peak, with the largest overall falls in Victoria (-28.2%) and Tasmania (-21.8%) and the smallest falls in Australian Capital Territory (-10.1%) and Northern Territory (-10.6%).

Search data from realestate.com.au shows that the rental market is following a similar trend.

Last week national rental search volumes fell -2.8 per cent led by a -16.9 per cent drop in Victoria – the largest drop experienced in 2020.

Falls were also recorded in Tasmania (-0.5%) and Northern Territory (-2.0%), while  increases were recorded in Queensland (3.7%) and Western Australia (1.7%).

The largest decline in rental search volumes from the peak has been recorded in Victoria (-25.8%) followed by Northern Territory (-20.4%), while the smallest falls have been recorded in Australian Capital Territory (-2.6%) and New South Wales (-3.9%).

Although there have been recent declines in weekly national rental search volumes, last week they were still 8.9 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

Rental search volumes are now lower than they were a year ago in Victoria (-7.6%) and marginally higher in South Australia (7.2%) while Australian Capital Territory (69.4%) and New South Wales (24.6%) have recorded the largest increases.

Lockdowns are having an impact on consumer confidence nationwide and that is likely to contribute to softer search volumes nationally until such time as COVID-19 cases come back under control in Victoria and assuming they remain under control elsewhere.

4. Finance Activity

While many Australians have been busy getting new loans, as you can see from the charts below, more than two thirds of these were for refinancing existing loans, rather than for new property purchases.

Of course this isn’t surprising considering the prevailing low interest rates.

What’s happening to property prices?

Considering all the negative market sentiment, capital city property values have held up pretty well over the last month.

While property values are slipping a little, one has to dig deeper into the numbers to see the full picture.

Certain segments of our markets are holding their values well, with a shortage of A grade homes and investment properties compared to the number of buyers out looking for them meaning that property values in certain locations are creeping up.

On the other hand B grade (secondary) properties are selling at a discount and no one really wants C grade properties.

The following charts were updated August 17th 2020.

There is a flight to quality.

Significant policy support and the earlier reopening of the economy have meant the various “worst-case scenarios of 20-30% price falls” that some of the economists have been touting now seem highly unlikely.

However, I still see property values falling a little further as unemployment will remain high, consumer confidence will continue to languish and immigration will fall.

Properties listed for sale

Even though buyers are returning to the market, overall the number of properties listed for sale is down 13.8% over the year.

?And of course there has been a significant drop in new listings for sale in Melbourne because of the lockdown.

The lack of good properties for sale at a time when there are still many interested buyers, is one of the reasons our property prices have, in general, held up

The number of property transactions

The Coronavirus lockdowns have caused a very significant slow down in transaction numbers.

The following table of private treaty sales (which represents the vast majority of all dwelling sales across the country) shows that over the last week:

• In Melbourne 1,464 houses (last week 1,533) and 670 apartments or units were sold (last week 688) – so over the last few weeks the number of transactions has been decreasing – no surprise here.
• In Sydney 1,370 houses (1,270 last week) and 708 apartments were sold (683 last week), so the market is continuing its steady growth.
• In Brisbane only 1,019 houses  (813 last week) and 220 apartments were sold (195 last week) – showing steady growth in the Brisbane home market.

Vendor Metrics

Vendor metrics had generally remained steady with the number of days to sell a property decreasing (a sign of the tight supply situation), and vendor discounting (it’s easier for them to sell) at realistic levels.

The shortage of good properties on the market in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne is seeing properties selling quickly with minimal discounting.

But now with Melbourne in Lockdown these metrics will change significantly for that city.

Auction clearance rates

There were only 735 properties taken to auction across the combined capital cities this week, significantly less than last week when 923 auctions were held, and less than this time last year (1,044).

The combined capital city preliminary auction clearance rate was recorded at 64.6% across 449 auction results reported so far, slightly higher than last week’s preliminary result which later revised down to 57.3%.

This time last year saw a final clearance rate of 68%.

Melbourne:

In Melbourne, 124 homes were scheduled for auction this week, down from 223 over the previous week and 545 this time last year.

The number of auctions held across Melbourne decreased sharply through the lockdown period and can only be conducted on line.

The sales that occur most likely reflect inspections that occurred before the lockdown.

With no inspections allowed anymore in metropolitan Melbourne, auctions are likely to peter out over the next weeks.

Interestingly the withdrawal rate has been much lower relative to the previous lockdown period in April and early May this year.

The preliminary data collected indicates 31% of Melbourne auctions were withdrawn from the market this week, compared with a peak of 65% through the second week of April.

Of the 64 Melbourne auction results collected so far, 60.2% were successful, although this will be revised lower as the remaining auction results are collected.

Last week saw a final clearance rate of 60.8% recorded across the city, while this time last year, 69.3% of Melbourne auctions were successful.

Realestate.com.au reported that there were also 883 private sales in Melbourne this week, significantly fewer than the number sold last week (1,254) and the 1,262 properties sold by private treaty the week before. But that’s not surprising considering Melbourne is in Lockdown.

Sydney:

The harbour city was host to 523 auctions this week, down from 580 over the previous week but considerably more than the 375 Sydney properties put to auction this time last year.

Of the 330 Sydney auction results collected so far, 65.9% have returned a successful result.

Last week, a final clearance rate of 57.4% was recorded for Sydney, while one year ago, a success rate of 72.3% was achieved across Sydney.

Realestate.com.au reported that there were also 1465  private sales in Sydney this week, more than the number sold last week (1,254)  and the 1,262 properties sold by private treaty the week before.

Of course the above auction clearance rates were on a relatively very small number of auctions:-

Here is a regional breakdown of auction results:-

Still downward pressure on Sydney & Melbourne rents

Asking rents in Sydney and Melbourne have continued to soften, even though there’s been no further apparent increase in the vacancy rates.

It’s different in the other capital cities.

• Rather than rising, Perth’s rental vacancy rate has continued to decline and now is down to 1.5%.
• Hobart’s rental market also seems to have strengthened with a tight vacancy rate of just under 1.0%.
• Adelaide asking rents have been relatively steady, also with a low 1.0% vacancy rate.
• Brisbane’s market has been more volatile, perhaps stabilising in recent weeks after an earlier period of weakness.

The Statistics above are updated weekly.
The following State by State Data is updated Monthly at the beginning of each month

My commentary below is based on Corelogic’s charts provided at the beginning of June 2020.

Sydney Property Market

Prior to COVID-19 the Sydney property market was on the move having recorded its quickest turnaround in decades.

But Sydney’s downturn accelerated in July, with dwelling values down 0.9% over the month, following a 0.8% drop in June and a 0.4% fall in May.

Since peaking in April, Sydney home values are down a cumulative 2.1%, with larger falls across the upper quartile of the market.

Despite the recent weakness, Sydney home values remain 12.1% higher than a year ago.

Despite the drop in values, our estimate of sales activity over the past three months is only 4% lower than the same period a year ago.

This is due to a rise in sales over the past three months following a sharp drop in April.

Sydney rents are also trending lower as a shortage of demand drives up vacancy rates.

House rents are down 1.1% since March and unit rents down a more substantial 3.2%.

From a more positive perspective, our estimate of sales activity is up by around 40% from the April low and auction clearance rates have remained in the  60 percent range.

This implies an improvement in buyer demand and a better fit between buyer and seller pricing expectations.

While A grade homes and investment grade properties are likely to fall a little (- 5- 10%) moving forward, this is a great time for cashed-up investors and homebuyers planning to upgrade to buy a property considerably cheaper than they would have had to pay a few months ago, and for considerably less than they will have to pay this time next year.

B grade (secondary) dwellings may fall in value by 10-15% and C grade properties are likely not to sell at all.

Melbourne Property Market

Before Coronavirus hit our markets, Melbourne property prices were surging with dwelling values up 12% higher to reach new highs.

However housing values in Melbourne moved through the fourth month of decline, racking up a cumulative 3.5% decline between the recent March peak and the end of July.

The decline in home values has been more significant across the top quartile of the market, where values are down 4.5% over the past three months alone.

Housing market conditions have been weaker than other capitals, which be attributed to the impact of the virus, but also Melbourne’s exposure to overseas migration and foreign students as a source of demand.

Rents have fallen as well, down 1.8% since the end of March, with larger falls across the unit market.

Despite the weak conditions, buyer activity has improved over the past three months, after-sales fell by around 41% in April.

Estimates of market activity show the number of sales over the past three months was 1.9% higher than the same period a year ago, but still 13% below the decade average.

Of course, this is all going to change now that Melbourne is in lockdown for another four weeks.

Like in Sydney, A grade homes and investment grade properties in Melbourne are likely to fall a little  (5- 10%) moving forward.

B grade (secondary) dwellings may fall in value by 10-15% and C grade properties are likely not to sell at all.

At Metropole we’re finding that strategic investors with a long-term view and homebuyers looking to upgrade are still in the market, picking the eyes out of the off market properties.

It’s likely that they see the long-term fundamentals, as Melbourne rates are one of the 10 fastest-growing large cities in the developed world,.

Melbourne’s population was forecast to increase by around 10% in the next 4 years.

Clearly this will slow down now, with restricted borders protecting Australia, but once we “cross the bridge” Melbourne will remain one of the most liveable cities in the world.

Brisbane Property Market

Understandably, the coronavirus crisis is creating uncertainty for those interested in the Brisbane property market, however while Brisbane home values have lost their upwards momentum through 2020, but they’ve held reasonably firm through the past few months.

Looking back over the last few years Brisbane’s property downturn in 2018-9 was quite shallow compared to the big two capital cities and following its recent upturn property values growth has slowed.

Brisbane home values have recorded only a modest decline through the COVID period, with dwelling values down 0.9% since peaking in April.

Unit values have fallen at a faster rate than houses, down 1.8% since a recent peak, while house values have fallen by less than half that rate, down 0.7% from their recent peak.

While home values have drifted lower, sales activity has shown a solid recovery since dropping sharply through March and April.

Estimates for the past three months show Brisbane home sales are tracking 16% higher than the same period in 2019 to be roughly equivalent with the decade average.

Brisbane rents recorded a subtle rise in July, up 0.1%, but have trended slightly lower since March, mostly due to a 1% fall in unit rents.

Moving forward…while some locations in Brisbane have strong growth potential, and the right properties in these locations will make great long term investments, certain submarkets should be avoided like the plague.

In the long term Brisbane’s economy is being underpinned by major projects like Queen’s Wharf, HS Wharf, TradeCoast, Cross River Rail, the second airport runway and the Adani Coal Mine, but jobs growth from these won’t really kick off for a few more years.

At the same time, we are getting more enquiries from interstate investors there we have for many, many years.

Adelaide Property Market

Adelaide home values have held reasonably firm through the COVID period to date, up slightly over the month to be 0.3% higher over the rolling quarter, with a similar steady trend evident across both houses and units.

The lower quartile of the market has recorded a slightly weaker result, with values edging 0.1% lower over the past three months, while value across the upper quartile rose by 0.3%.

Although home values are generally steady, the estimated number of home sales over the past three months is down 7% compared with the same time last year.

The reduction in sales activity can be attributed to both low stock levels as well as less buyer activity.

Adelaide remains one of the few capital city rental markets to record a rise in rents, with rental prices trend slightly higher since March, rising 0.4%.

Perth Property Market

Perth’s rate of decline eased in July, with values down 0.6% over the month following a 1.1% drop in June.

The reduced rate of decline comes as sales activity rebounds from the recent April low.

There is very little difference between the performance of houses and units, with houses down 2.2% over the rolling quarter while unit values were down 2.1%.

The past three months have seen our estimate of sales activity recover to levels that are slightly higher than the same period a year ago, but still down on the long-run average.

Total listing numbers remain 26% lower than last year, despite new listings tracking almost 13% higher than a year ago.

The shortage of advertised supply is another factor keeping a lid on turnover.

Rental markets have also tightened, with CoreLogic’s rental index rising 1.3% since March.

This is the strongest growth in rent values across the capital city markets since the onset of the pandemic.

Hobart Property Market

Hobart was the darling of speculative property investors and the best performing property market in 2017- 8, and while dwelling values reached a record high in February 2020, its boom is now over and values fell slightly in March and April.

However Hobart houses and units exhibited a slight fall in July.

It’s likely the Hobart market will continue to lose its momentum over the year as its local economy is very dependant on tourism which is a sector of the economy that will suffer more than most.

Darwin Property Market

The Darwin property market peaked in May 2014 and is still suffering from the effects of the end of our mining boom with a very soft employment market and lack of migration and infrastructure spending.

Darwin property values finally started to increase earlier this year, and values increased 2.1% over the last quarter.

However, values are currently 31.4% below their historic peak and it is unlikely we’ll see these types of house prices again in the next decade.

The small size of the Darwin market makes it more susceptible to local events and Darwin typically has a higher and more variable vacancy rate, a product of a large transient working population.

Darwin does not have significant growth drivers on the horizon and would be best avoided by investors.

Canberra Property Market

Canberra’s property market has been a “quiet achiever” with dwelling values having reached a new peak after growing 7.2% over the last year .

Considering a large percentage of Canberra population is employed by the government or industries supporting the public sector, Canberra’s property market is less likely to be affected by the upcoming recession than our other capital cities.

Our rental markets

Unit rentals experienced the biggest price drop in more than 15 years, marking a historic rent price fall of 3.2% (equivalent to $15 per week) over the June quarter according to Domain.

House and unit rental prices fell across most major capitals, illustrating no city was immune from the impact of coronavirus, with Sydney and Hobart unit rentals hardest hit — both recorded the steepest quarterly fall on record.

More than a quarter of advertised rental properties across Melbourne have had their asking prices slashed in recent months as landlords tried to lure new tenants in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak.

At the same time almost a third of rental properties in Sydney have been discounted since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Australian shores, as landlords battle it out to secure tenants.

Other market indicators:

Vendor metrics have generally softened over the last few months with the number of days to sell a property increasing (a sign of excess supply), vendor discounting deepening (it’s harder for them to sell.)

The RBA dropped “official interest rates twice in March and banks have been lowering their rates to new borrowers in order to “buy” business.

And it is unlikely interest rates will rise for some years.

And first homebuyers are back into the market, some taking advantage of government incentives while others experienced FOMO, wanting to get into the market before property values start increasing again.

Interestingly, investor activity start the year off slowly and has continued that way.

What’s ahead?

It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.

It’s even harder to predict the end point of a moving target.

Yet, as someone who’s meant to know a bit about our property markets, I’m regularly asked how all this is going to play out?

What’s going to happen to the property markets? Are house prices really going to crash like those doomsayers keep telling us?

Of course, I realise there are some commentators out there making predictions; but my answer is – I really don’t know!

I realise that’s not a satisfactory answer.

By the way…no one else really knows the answers either!

Yet at a time like this, most of us are looking for someone to tell them what’s going to happen next.

Of course I wish I had the answers.  I really do.

All I can say is I don’t know.

I don’t know how this virus is going to play out, how long we’ll be in lockdown or what the economic fallout will be.

But there are a few things I do know and I suggest you read this blog to understand what’s ahead: Coronavirus crisis: I have no idea what will happen to property prices!

What I do know is that once we cross the proverbial bridge that the government is building for us, a property market will rebound again as they always have.

I also know that there’s a group of strategic investors and business owners who are positioning themselves for the future.

They recognise that there is currently a strategic window, the time between now and that survival to get set to take advantage of the opportunities that always abound after severe downturns.

As property investors they are working with their consultants to set up a strategic property plan, they getting their financial and ownership structures in place and doing the appropriate research.

They’re not trying to time the market, but they want to take advantage of the opportunities the market is currently and will in the future be offering.

These strategic investors know that people will eventually come out of lockdown and want to get on with their lives.

These strategically focused investors know it looks bad today, it might even look bad tomorrow, but they’re prepared to hang in there, they’re prepared to lay the foundations for their future success.

Despite the headlines, they know that the world will not going to end. They are prepared to bet on humanity.

They recognise that how they think and what they do between now and that survival line will determine their level of success when we move on to whatever our new normal will be.

In my opinion for those who have a secure job and their finances organised, this is a great time to buy a home or investment property at a price that you were unlikely to be able to get a couple of weeks ago when the property markets in big capital cities were booming and there were more buyers around than sellers.

It is likely that human nature will cause many would-be buyers to sit on the sidelines for a little while until things become more clear, which means that sellers will be more amenable to accepting offers rather than holding out for a top price.

Remember don’t make long-term decisions like buying a home or an investment property based on the last 30 minutes of news.

There is no doubt there will be opportunities in the market for those who are willing to go against the crowd and when they look back in a year’s time and definitely in 5 or 10 years’ time, they will remember the unprecedented events of 2020 as a great buying opportunity for property.

Michael Yardney