The Australian property boom that I’m forecasting is already under way in many parts of the nation.
This will startle many readers who are accustomed to headlines declaring that prices have been falling. The Financial Review ran a headline on 23 October which shouted: “House prices rise for the first time since May” which perpetuated the myth that they’ve been falling everywhere for the past several months.
The problem, as usual, is generalization, where publicity-seekers including economists and research firms discuss Australia as a single market, with one figure to describe “Australian property prices”, with the average dragged down by struggling markets in Melbourne and Sydney.
For real estate consumers, this is dreadful misinformation and a source of great confusion. For real estate professionals, it’s incredibly frustrating because it’s sending erroneous messages to buyers and sellers.
The reality is that many parts of Australia already have rising property markets. I’m having conversations every day with buyers agents, valuers and others right across the nation who are trying the operate in markets where there’s little or nothing available for rent and anything half decent listed for sale is attracting long queues at open houses.
Good properties are being snapped up, often within days of being listed – or, in some cases, before being listed. This anecdotal evidence from people at the coal-face is supported by the statistics, showing ultra low vacancies, rising rents and upward movement in prices.
It’s not happening everywhere but growth markets are the rule, not the exception – sufficient to justify claims that a nationwide boom is gathering momentum.
The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle (about which I have written a number of times in recent months) is not the only driver of this growth, but it’s a significant one – and Regional Queensland is one of the places that have strong markets, thanks in part to this powerful trend.
Markets across Regional Queensland are out-performing on price growth, led by the Sunshine Coast and with notable recovery under way in resources-related markets that have spent several years in decline.
Almost three-quarters of locations across Regional Queensland have had annual growth in their median house prices and a similar number of towns and suburbs have had uplift in the most recent quarter.
This reflects strength in local economies and also the popularity of Queensland among those participating in the Exodus movement.
Apartment markets are less buoyant, with 55% of locations recording annual growth in their median unit prices, compared to 73% of house markets.
The Sunshine Coast continues to impress as one of the nation’s strongest markets, with price uplift in particular in the top end of the market.
Sunshine Beach, the most expensive suburb on the coast, has recorded a 33% annual rise in its median house price, now $1,750,000. The canal-based suburb of Minyama has increased 29% in the past 12 months to $1,190,000. Yandina (median house price $730,000) has increased 30%.
The market in and around Noosa is a particular standout, with Sunshine Beach up 33%, Sunrise Beach up 17% and Noosaville up 12%. Elsewhere on the Sunshine Coast, Mooloolaba (median price $900,000) has risen 10% and Moffat Beach (median price $910,000) is up 12%.
The Gold Coast has some notable growth performances also, with Worongary (30%), Runaway Bay (14%), Miami (12%), Arundel (15%) and Burleigh Heads (15%) all recording big annual growth.
A number of Central Queensland are rising, including Mackay (where Andergrove, Blacks Beach, South Mackay and North Mackay have all recorded double-digit annual growth) and Rockhampton (where Berserker has led the growth with a 27% increase).
Gladstone continues to deliver evidence of recovery from a lengthy downturn, with median house price growth in suburbs such as Calliope (10%), Clinton (12%), West Gladstone (18%) and Tannum Sands (11%).
Central Queensland resources towns like Moranbah (up 23%) and Clermont (up 10%) are also recovering, albeit from a very low base. Chinchilla on the Western Downs is in a similar position, with its median house price rising 15% in the past 12 months after several years of decline.
Toowoomba is a market to watch; it appears on the cusp of an infrastructure-driven growth phase with some suburbs already rising, including Mt Lofty (up 13%) and Middle Ridge (15%).
In Far North Queensland, revival is under way in both Cairns (where Edge Hill has risen 16% and Palm Cove 11%) and Townsville (where Mt Louisa is up 10%).
TERRY RYDER
