Election 2019: Coalition keeps power while Labor looks for a leader, live blog

We’re going to wrap things up here

His seat’s safe, but I’m sure Josh Frydenberg could get a casual gig pulling pints if he wanted

Cowan has moved to our seats in doubt column

Lots of questions about this majority/minority issue

Does Anthony Green have an update on how the final numbers are looking? I see more seats have become “in doubt”.

-Giles

Here’s what it’s looking like at the moment:

We’re back up to seven seats in doubt.

Either party needs 77 seats in the House of Representatives to govern in its own right, because after providing the speaker, this would give it a majority of 76 to 74 on the floor of the House. The Coalition is obviously closer here (and of those seats in doubt it’s ahead in three of those seven seats in doubt right now), but it’s still tight.

Constitutional expert Anne Twomey has explained what happens next.

Checking in on the wombat trail

Here’s the Treasurer pulling pints

A bowls club with political history

How Bob Brown and his anti-Adani convoy handed Queensland to the Coalition

Christensen buoyed by big bump

Nationals MP George Christensen says there was a big swing towards him because people raised concerns about local jobs, as opposed to climate change and the Adani coal mine.

Many predicted Mr Christensen would be voted out. He had a thin margin and was hammered by Labor for spending a lot of time in the Philippines, rather than Mackay.

“I am honoured and thankful for people casting their vote for me again, the fourth time as a member for Dawson.

“It is very humbling to get that level of support, but the hard work starts once again.

“There are still those voices … that are saying we have got to shut all these things down that are creating local jobs.”

Here’s what that swing looks like. YUGE.

Nobody believed in the Liberals as much as Scott Morrison did

“In terms of Victoria, our polling showed it was going to be tight. We thought all along that a number of these seats would be in the balance.

“Nationally, we knew that when starter’s gun of the election was called, we were behind. And at the same time, we were in this race.

“Nobody believed it more than Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has shown enormous energy, conviction and belief as he has travelled around the country promoting our economic message.”

“My position on the leadership is well known and I do pay credit to the achievements of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister, like I pay credit to the achievements of Tony Abbott as prime minister.

“But the party room has spoken and we are now looking to the future, and Scott Morrison has shown himself to be a fantastic leader and a fantastic Prime Minister, and he has won this election and he will now continue to be Prime Minister of Australia.”

Frydenberg on the East-West Link

“It will not be delivered until they say yes, and we are saying to Daniel Andrews that this is a critical infrastructure project for Victoria, someone 100,000 commuters would use.

“It would bypass 23 traffic lights, avoid congestion and take a 27-minute trip down to just seven minutes and clearly that would be good for the flow of traffic through Melbourne.

“Victoria, notoriously, has paid over $1 billion not to build the road. That was very, very unfortunate and costly.

“We have taken the policy of building the East-West Link to now three elections, 2013, 2016 and 2019. It has been identified by infrastructure Victoria and infrastructure Australia is a priority project, so I would say to Daniel Andrews: explain why this is not a priority for you, given it is a priority for the people of Melbourne.”

Josh Frydenberg gives a shout-out to Katie Allen

Carry on

Wayne Swan: We need to examine our policies

The President of the Australian Labor Party this is a deeply disappointing result and that attributing blame on any particular person or policy is not wise.

But he does say there needs to be a rethink:

“In light of this result we need to examine our policy framework and our campaign strategies.

“… We owe it to our supporters and future generations of Australians to find a politics that  connects the people with these urgent challenges.”

Frydenberg is happy to be out and about today

“We are delivering on a promise because last Friday, the evening before the election, I was asked to come and speak to members around the bar in speak about the election ahead and took some questions.

“I said if I was lucky enough to be re-elected and the government re-elected then I would come and shout the bar, well, here I am to deliver on that promise!

“Obviously, some good news in Kooyong, but we have also had good news nationally and Prime Minister Scott Morrison has spoken about that last night. Still many votes to be counted but we are looking forward to forming government.”

Albanese: ‘There will be no offers made’

He’s now giving an insight into how he’ll approach this process:

I am putting myself forward as an individual, I’m not making any arrangements with anyone, I did that last time. No offers made.

I’m putting myself forward on my merits and people will make a judgement. I will accept the judgement, as I did last time.

Step up, Anthony Albanese

And of course, this absolute treasure from Albo’s own archives.

Albanese: ‘I know what it is like to do it tough’

Anthony Albanese is not playing ball about policy questions or pointing to where things went wrong.

Instead, he says he wants to be a leader among equals in caucus and those policy questions will be debated at length.

He has avoided saying whether he think he would have won yesterday’s election, and that he thinks he “can take it” to Scott Morrison in the job as Opposition Leader.

“You will also see my concern, which is through a lived experience.

“I grew up in a house with a single mum on an invalid pension.

I grew up in public housing down in Camperdown.

“I know what it is like to do it tough.

“I think that governments will have a role and should be judged on how they look after the most vulnerable, not the most wealthy.”

Albanese: We will re-examine policies

Anthony Albanese says caucus will look at policies but won’t fundamentally change its values.

There’s also an interesting point about uniting Australians.

“You will not get any change in my values, because you all know what they are.

“I think I have applied them consistently.

“From time to time, some of my comments have been taken as being something new when they are things I have said for 20 years.

“Such as the importance of working together to unite, rather than to divide.”

What does Shorten think went wrong for Labor?

“This interview is not one for doing a whole post-match analysis — I gave some of my analysis last night.

“I will convene the national executive of the Labor Party tomorrow. As the caretaker leader I will start the ball rolling so that in a matter of weeks, the members of the party under the parliamentary party can pick a new leader to take us into the next exciting time in the Parliament ahead. Thanks, everybody.”

Albanese announces his bid

Anthony Albanese says he is the best person to lead Labor back into government, after three consecutive election losses.

He says this is not something that comes naturally to him, but that he’s already had some discussions with colleagues.

He also says that if there is a contested ballot, which seems likely, that it will be conducted fairly.

“I certainly think that the last time that occurred between myself and Bill, it actually put us in a strong position to hit the ground running as a first-term opposition.

“I will be asking the members of the caucus and the party for their support. I think Australians know me.

“What you see is what you get with me, for better or worse.

“I am a bit rough at the edges, but I think that Australians don’t want someone who just utters talking points. So from time to time, I will not be as articulate as someone who is simply reading from a script.”

More from Bill Shorten

“I am now looking forward to spending some overdue time with my amazing wife, after all, I am Chloe Shorten’s husband, and to see the kids.”

Albanese outlines his vision

He’s not got to leadership yet, but he’s clearly outlining what he wants to see a Labor government achieve.

He says Labor needs to re-examine its policies, but not its values.

We need to create high skilled jobs in new industries, as our economy continues to transition.

We need to build the national infrastructure that deals with these issues.

What we need to do is have a government that deals with the big challenges by bringing people together.

We need unions and businesses, people who live in our cities, the outer suburbs, or in the regions, to come together and recognise that what unites us as a nation is far greater and what divides us.

We need to articulate how Labor’s vision will drive jobs, economic growth and prosperity.

Bill Shorten is addressing the media now

He begins:

“Today is a hard day for tens of thousands of Labor supporters. There’s lots of lessons for Labor to learn from yesterday’s result and I know my party will.”

Albanese: ‘I am sorry’

More from Anthony Albanese:

This is indeed a devastating result for the Australian Labor Party.

I am sorry that we collectively did not get the job done, but I want to take the opportunity as well to thank the voters of Grayndler for giving me the great honour of continuing to serve the inner west of Sydney in the national parliament.

Albanese: Morrison and Shorten have my respect

Anthony Albanese starts off by congratulating Scott Morrison on his election win.

I’ve had my differences and will continue to have my differences with prime ministers on the other side of politics, but I respect the office of Prime Minister and I acknowledge how hard he and Jenny and his daughters campaigned right around the country.

Anthony Albanese is speaking now

Shorten still leader, until replacement picked

This statement has just arrived from Bill Shorten.

He will continue as Opposition Leader until a replacement is picked by his party. He wants this to be done as soon as possible.

This means there is a real chance Mr Shorten could still face Scott Morrison when Parliament returns.

That could be soon, as the Coalition wants to pass its tax plans promptly.

This morning, I’ve asked the National Secretary to convene a meeting of the National Executive to start the process to elect a new Leader of the Labor Party.

I would like this process to be completed as quickly as is reasonably possible.

As I said last night, I will not be nominating for the position of leader.

Until this ballot occurs, I will act as outgoing leader.

Following the election I will remain in parliament and look forward to supporting the new leadership team.

Until new leadership is elected, all Shadow Ministers will remain in their portfolios.

For millions of Labor supporters, today is a very hard day.

I promise I will do everything I can to ensure our great party is back stronger, wiser and united to ensure we can deliver a fair go for all.

Marles will speak soon

Another Labor frontbencher will be speaking soon.

Shadow Defence Minister Richard Marles. So far he has been talked about as a potential deputy leader option. He is from the Victorian right.

If Labor picks Tanya Plibersek or Anthony Albanese as leader, he is a potential option for the more junior position.

More women joining the Nats’ Senate ranks

What’s in it for Ag?

A lot of questions about Penny

How about Penny Wong for leader? Surely she would be a more dynamic choice for the electorate?

-Ray Clack

Any gossip about Penny Wong swapping senate with HoR to give a tilt at leadership.Best chance they’ve I would think.

-Olly

As well-liked as Penny Wong is, she’s sort of in the wrong chamber to be party leader. She’s Labor’s leader in the Senate, whereas party leader almost always goes to someone sitting in the Lower House. She’s ruled out making a switch in order to have a tilt at the leadership. Here’s what she had to say about this herself last night:

Leigh Sales: Penny Wong, now that Bill Shorten has said he will step down as Labor leader, is there anything you’d like to say about that?

Penny Wong: About which bit?

Leigh Sales: About who you think will be next leader?

Penny Wong: Oh, no, obviously this isn’t the result we were hoping for, so I need probably a good night’s sleep and have a discussion…

Leigh Sales: You mentioned before the people that are tweeting you. I do notice you are insanely popular. Would you ever shift that popularity to the Reps? Among the Labor faithful you are among the most beloved, would you consider shifting to the Reps?

Penny Wong: No.

Liberals pleased with Victorian result

Labor is set to claim at least three new seats in Victoria, but a repeat of November’s state election thumping has not eventuated, with the Liberal Party holding onto a swag of seats in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.

Richard Willingham has just filed this:

The marginal seat of Chisholm is the tightest race in the state, with only a few hundred votes separating the Liberal Party’s Gladys Liu and Labor’s Jennifer Yang.

Labor easily won the new seat of Fraser and is on track to win Corangamite and Dunkley off Liberal MPs Sarah Henderson and Chris Crewther respectively, after a pre-election redistribution made the seats notionally Labor.

Despite swings against the Liberal Party in its traditional blue-ribbon seats, the party retained Kooyong and should win Higgins, which was vacated by former minister Kelly O’Dwyer.

The Liberal Party’s primary vote dropped below 50 per cent in both seats.

The answer to this is… yes

Would I be correct in guessing that Katy Gallagher is back in the Senate repping ACT?

-Tom

what about jason clare throwing his hat in the ring?

-anthony walsh

Messages of congratulations for the new PM

That’s it from me today

Analysis hit

A few quick comments from political editor Andrew Probyn.

He says this will leave deep scars for Labor.

Well, it was utterly remarkable.

Both sides were saying in the hours leading up that they didn’t think that the Coalition could form a majority. There was a view that forming a minority would also be a struggle for the Coalition.

They were guided by public polls and internal polling, which had absolutely no semblance of what we saw on the night.

We saw a very, very big swings against the Labor Party in Queensland pointing to some deep troubles for the ALP, especially in the north of Queensland.

And we saw seats that Labor had hoped to take in New South Wales held. So it was quite a remarkable night, one that is going to leave deep scars on the Labor Party.

Albanese to speak at 1.30pm

Anthony Albanese will also run for Labor leadership

We’ve confirmed Mr Albanese will nominate today.

There were enough hints in his speech last night, let alone the last three years, to give this away.

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen is also seriously considering a tilt at the leadership.

There is usually a mix of left and right faction MPs in the leader and deputy leadership team.

There also needs to be a balance of states.

So if Mr Albanese or Ms Plibersek were successful, then Mr Chalmers or Richard Marles are options for deputy.

Some things, never change

As Australia watched on with bated breath and Scott Morrison defied years of opinion polls and public expectations, the results for the national capital were severely lacking in suspense.

Here’s Jordan Hayne‘s take:

A follow-up to that Presidential tweet

“President Donald J. Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia. The President congratulated the Prime Minister on his coalition’s victory in Australia’s federal election. The two leaders reaffirmed the critical importance of the long-standing alliance and friendship between the United States and Australia, and they pledged to continue their close cooperation on shared priorities.”

Congratulations from the former PM

We’re getting some questions about the Senate

Independents day

A quick check in to the electorate of Indi.

Independent MP Helen Haines has won this seat, continuing the Independent representation after Cathy McGowan, who has retired.

She’s willing to work with the Coalition but wants real action on climate change:

I always engage with people with respect and I know that in my collaboration with the Coalition it will be a respectful engagement.

I’m very, very optimistic and confident of that.

What is clear is that our emissions in Australia are still going up and that the policy put forward by the Coalition at this election is not robust enough to address that.

So I’ll be very, very determined to work with the Government, whether it be in minority or majority to address that in a way that has real impact on climate.

So that will be around setting some clear targets for renewable energy.

So who could challenge Plibersek?

Other contenders include shadow treasurer Chris Bowen and environment spokesman Tony Burke, Labor’s chief tactician in the House of Representatives.

Both of those men are in Labor’s right faction.That’s important as leader and deputy leader normally represent both factions.

Mr Bowen refused to be drawn on his intentions last night:

I’ve got to talk to my wife and my family before I talk to any colleague

Thirty minutes later, having talked to his wife, his intentions remained unclear:

I’ve had two conversations with my wife since but neither were definitive.

Do scare campaigns work?

That’s another lesson to consider from this election.

This is the opinion of the Insiders panel:

Niki Savva:

People who don’t really pay attention, how do they separate truth from fiction?

Patricia Karvelas:

I think it works. Whether it should work, or morally, I have a different view.

David Crowe:

I think when reporting on big ideas in national politics, you don’t want negative to work. But the evidence is in from this campaign that it did work, and that is something that will shape the next campaign.

Great Scott!

What about Jim Chalmers?

There’s plenty of talk about who else could go for the Labor leadership.

Tanya Plibersek has made her intentions clear. Anthony Albanese has hinted.

But what about the Coalition’s campaign spokesman and Shadow Finance Minister, Jim Chalmers?

Insiders guests think that’s a reasonable question:

Patricia Karvelas:

Don’t discount someone like Jim Chalmers.

I know that he’s younger, but he’splayed a pivotal role in this campaign.

He’s a good communicator. He’s a Queenslander. That matters.

And Niki Savva:

I would encourage Jim Chalmers to run, because I think they need a new generation of leaders.